As a longtime audio/video editor and reviewer, and especially as editor of ProjectorCentral, I have watched keenly the dropping price of large flat-panel televisions. That the TVs always get bigger at ever-shrinking prices is as inevitable as the sun rising. Most consumers don't know that the current "popular" size being promoted for TFT (thin film transistor) LCD TVs, the tech used in your run-of-the-mill "LED TV," is based on the advancement and evolution of the LCD panel factories. LCD glass is produced in large substrates from which smaller TVs are derived, and the larger the substrate, the more efficient the production. As best I can tell from internet research, we are up to Generation 11 factories, which produce a substrate approximately 9.9 x 10.9 feet. That is large enough to cut eight 70-inch televisions and, according to some Chat GPT math calculations, perhaps up to three 98-inch or 100-inch panels. There are more Gen 10.5 and Gen 10 factories out there, which can do up to eight or six 65-inch TVs, respectively, from a single piece of glass, but which presumably can also be pressed into servicing those larger screen sizes.

Beyond the size of the latest substrate glass, the dynamics and competition in the display industry drive increasing volume and lower prices at any given screen size. The investment to get these factories up and running is enormous, and once active, they must be kept running to pay for themselves. The more they run, the more industry capacity there is and the more opportunity to punch out the bigger screen sizes once demand has been met for the smaller, currently popular sizes. These are offered at ever-lower prices to keep the demand high and the factories churning. Next thing you know, we've jumped from 55-inch being the most common and most cost-effective screen size to 65-inch, or to 75- or 85-inch. I just looked online and found an 85-inch Hisense on clearance at Best Buy for $749. This was unheard of not too long ago.

So I wasn't surprised when a while back I saw a 100-inch TV going for $5,000, which was probably $2,000-3,000 less than the prior cheapest offerings at that size. What did surprise me, however, were this year's Super Bowl promotions for a 98-inch TCL and a 100-inch from Hisense, each pegged at $1,999. As of this writing, Hisense has returned the price of its 100-inch U76N QLED model to $4,999, but TCL continues to offer its 98-inch S5 at $1,999—$1,000 off the $2,999 list price. I don't know if somebody jumped a factory Gen without telling us, or if production has just reached a new zenith that encourages this kind of crazy pricing. But only a fool or an ostrich with its neck in the sand would fail to see that this is a watershed moment for the projector industry.

Just how big a shift, and where it will most resonate, remains to be seen. We projector people often talk about the unique attributes of projection, such as the quality of viewing reflected light from a screen vs. the headlamp-in-your-eyes aggressiveness of direct-view displays. We talk about how projection mimics the way we see in real life and is consequently less fatiguing and what I like to call more "organic." And there's no doubt a projected home cinema of any size better mimics your local movie theater experience than a similarly sized TV.

But the reality is that the primary attraction of projection has always been the easily-discerned benefit of immersion in a huge picture. That allure is so profound as to have driven a profitable home theater projector business for decades despite the target customer having to jump all sorts of barriers just to make it happen. These include the need to research a fairly complex technological product and an appropriate screen, then hanging and mounting said projector and screen—often in a way that negatively affects the aesthetics of their space and requires significant construction skills to hide wires that need to be snaked through walls and ceilings. To add insult, until the introduction of affordable solid-state laser and LED light sources to the consumer projector space, enthusiasts have had to suffer the image degradation and ongoing replacement costs associated with lamps. This is all very different than just plopping a new TV on the credenza. You can sing the praises of traditional home projection all you want, but it could never be mistaken for a mass market product.

In this context, I was excited to see the emergence of laser ultra-short throw living room projectors in recent years. Finally, we have a projector that addresses those installation and maintenance pain points, and allows broader access to the joys of a big picture. That said, UST as a TV replacement comes with its own caveats, most notably the need for a specialized ambient-light rejecting screen that allows it to function like a TV in room light. At this moment, the screens come in two popular sizes: 100-inch and 120-inch diagonal. Presently, the combined cost of even the least expensive 4K laser TV (around $2,000) and a suitable 100-inch screen (around $1,000) well exceeds the cost of one of those budget 98-inchers. Step up to a higher performing projector, perhaps a $3,000 model, and the system cost is double the price of the cheapest 98-inch panel at $1,999. You can argue that the projection system will be easier to handle in setup than a 125 pound panel TV, and from the online reviews you can see that these big sets still have their issues with the potential for room glare and image uniformity problems if you get a bad sample. Most LCD TVs also suffer a narrow viewing window, something that's not a problem with UST systems utilizing the preferred lenticular ALR screen type that boasts a near-180 degree viewing angle. But short of the specialty application of the "disappearing home theater," which I'll discuss below, it's likely that the not-too-distant future holds considerably less drawing power for the 100-inch laser TV solution.

If the current trend continues, then, logic says projection will only present a viable alternative to flat screens at sizes larger than 100 inches. Many dedicated home theater installs will still demand bigger images and rely on traditional long-throw projectors, at least while high-performance LED wall tiles remain cost prohibitive. But the breakthrough pricing for 98-/100-inch flat-panels may also adversely affect the 120-inch UST business. Most of the laser TVs have optics that top-out at 120 inches, and the additional premium for that larger UST screen makes those 20 or 22 extra inches rather costly against a 98- or 100-inch budget TV. For the few USTs that claim a maximum image size of 150 inches, enthusiasm is tempered by the cost of the nearly one-off 150-inch UST screens, currently as high as $5,000, as well as the loss in brightness when you expand the image to that size and attempt to use the projector in ambient light—a fact that promotors of such systems don't talk about.

Then, there's the question of how much TV is too much. Aside from a dedicated theater space, how many U.S. households really have the room to comfortably accommodate a 120-inch or larger screen in their den or living room? A 98- or 100-inch TV at $1,999 today, and perhaps even cheaper in the next Black Friday sales, may very well hit the sweet spot a majority of consumers have been waiting for to finally embrace big-screen viewing.

I say this not to disparage laser TVs—on the contrary, I use one every day and love it. I am amazed at the quality of the image on my UST screen in ambient light, and I remain bullish on the category for all its benefits. But it would be hard to ignore the challenges that business may face in the near future. Short of a significant drop in pricing for both the projectors and the specialty screens to make them more competitive, the incentive to purchase a laser TV system could be greatly diminished.

Dropping prices on larger TVs does not mean, however, that projection just goes away, even for consumer home theater and even for UST laser TV. Here are some of the applications where projection may continue to not only survive but potentially thrive, starting with the commercial realm.

Projection Mapping & Immersive Exhibits

Nowhere is the power of the big image more evident than in the awe-inspiring, creative works that are photon-painted on the sides of buildings and natural features. These mostly temporary entertainments are and will always be dominated and made possible by projection. You could make LED tiles as energy efficient as a copper cable and as light and thin as tin foil, and if all you're doing is lighting up the side of a 10-story building for a fortnight it would still be way cheaper to rent a couple of high-output projectors and pay off the doorman of the building across the street to give you access to his roof.

Similarly, we are seeing more examples of the "immersive exhibit," defined as a space into which viewers are able to walk into an alternative, experiential reality without having to don virtual reality glasses. I suppose you can use LED tiles at relatively high cost for a permanent installation, but for any sort of traveling or temporary show, you can't beat projectors for economy or setup efficiency.

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Large Venue Event Spaces

I don't deny the excitment of what's being done with permanently-installed LED floor tiles in basketball venues and even under-ice LED lighting in hockey stadiums. But for big touring concert shows and other traveling events, the comparative ease of transport and installation for projectors and large projection screens vs the cost of moving and setting up large LED tile displays can't be denied. And newer projection screen materials that can approach the brightness and deep blacks of an LED display may further extend projection's life.

An example is the recently reported case study describing how pop singer Adele is utilizing high output laser projectors mated with giant CarbonBlack projection screens in her Las Vegas residency. If the industry can keep innovating with screen technology at the same time it continues to drive more brightness out of smaller boxes with improved efficiency, it will surely prolong projection's longevity. That trend toward delivering more light from shrinking chassis will also continue to drive projection in its traditional large-venue markets including education, house of worship, museums and theme parks.

Hybrid Work Installations

It's hard to know how long it will last given the ongoing evolution and dropping cost of LED wall tiles, but with businesses starting to embrace widescreen conferencing formats like Microsoft Teams Front Row for their hybrid work spaces, projection is logically poised to enjoy a renaissance in the boardroom. Image size is key for these installations—you're trying to get all the participants on the screen at something larger than a postage stamp along with shared workspace for documents—and a typical 16:9 TV, even a big one, doesn't quite cut it for these 21:9 aspect ratio setups. Fortunately, projector manufacturers see the opportunity and are building the 21:9 option into many new conference room projectors, while screen makers are starting to offer stock 21:9 screens.

High End & "Hidden" Home Theater

As I noted, the positive cost-per-inch ratio that projection has enjoyed vs. panel TV or LED wall tile remains in place for now at the larger screens sizes above 100 inches. While I can envision a day when LED walls will replace the classic projector/screen combo for dark room home theater—and we're starting to see some impressive demos now at the trade shows—that option remains prohibitively expensive, typically hugely so against a good projector install. I would expect enthusiasts and large custom theater jobs to continue to rely on traditional long-throw projectors for a good while.

Furthermore, a UST laser TV installation, even at the threatened 100-inch size, presents a unique opportunity vs. a like-sized panel TV that can perhaps justify its premium. A few projector vendors, furniture makers, and specialty firms have demonstrated low-boy cabinets which hide a UST projector (sometimes on a motorized sled), a floor-rising UST ALR screen, and audio equipment. When not in use, your favorite artwork hangs on the wall above a seemingly ordinary credenza. Push the button, and up comes the screen, revealing your quite-capable home theater/TV system. Short of a lift system that can drop a 100-inch TV from the ceiling or bring it up from the basement, that's just not something you can do, or do as elegantly, with a flatpanel.

Golf Simulators

It took the COVID pandemic to reveal a latent appetite among golf enthusiasts for golf simulators. Increased competiton and dropping prices among the outfits who make the software and flight sensors have now driven interest further, and there's been something of a surge in both DIY home simulators and commercial installations where people rent booth time by the hour. Projector manufacturers have noticed, responding with more short throw models suitable for this unusual application and with dedicated golf sim resources on their websites. Even ProjectorCentral couldn't ignore the trend: we received so many inquires about the subject we finally launched a Golf Projector Buyer's Guide to educate readers and direct them to resources.

Of course, golf simulators require you to hit into a specialty impact screen that both absorbs the ball flight and displays the projected image showing its trajectory on a virtual golf course. Try that with an LED wall or a panel TV. Ouch.

Gaming Projectors

Gaming has become a huge industry that only continues to grow, and there are some signs of spark in the increasing number of consumer projectors that are either directly marketed to gamers or whose characteristics support serious gaming. These attributes are primarily higher brightness to combat ambient light and low latency. In particular, projectors with low input lag that can compete with all but the very fastest gaming monitors is a relatively new industry development, and it has allowed gamers to enjoy the benefits of big-screen play without sacrificing their edge. A number of traditional-looking rectangular projectors fit the bill, but I suspect there's an even greater potential for crossover lifestyle gaming projectors (see below) that deliver quick setup, greater flexibility, and more visual appeal.

Lifestyle Projectors

I have saved what I think is the most interesting development for last. It has always been understood that the classic long-throw, dark-room home theater projector is a specialty item whose sales would be limited by those barriers to entry I described above. Ultra-short throw laser TV is an attempt to appeal to a broader, mass market audience—anyone who has a TV, really—but as we've also discussed, it has it's own competitive limitations that may hinder its adoption as a TV replacement.

However, there is a new, still emerging category we call lifestyle projectors that has the potential to perhaps drive the next big wave of projector sales. These products are well represented at the high end by the five projectors we faced off in our 2023 Laser TV/Lifestyle Projector Showdown last fall, such as the JMGO N1 Ultra and XGIMI Horizon Ultra, as well as by the unusual form-factors and functionality of the Samsung Freestyle and LG PU700R, and by the latest generation of compact portables we've been testing from Anker and ASUS.

At face value, these are just the latest crop of portable and compact transportable projectors, a class which has been around for a long time. But the performance and brightness of the best of these models has been vastly improved, and even the most rudimentary, least bright models are appearing with sophisticated setup features like auto focus, auto keystone, and auto obstacle avoidance that can put a perfectly focused and geometrically correct image up on a spare wall in seconds. We're seeing both LED and laser-driven models, and the most sophisticated feature triple-laser RGB or hybrid laser engines that promise high brightness and vivid, saturated colors with today's HDR content. By and large, they come with very robust audio systems for their size.

The customers for these products, at any price level, are not the traditional enthusiast. These units are designed to be pulled out of a closet or a backpack and tossed on a coffee table for a movie night, a bit of serial Netflix bingeing with friends or family, or to play some videogames on the big screen. These users don't lose sleep about the potential loss of image quality from using keystone the way hardcore enthusiasts do, and they don't need or want a screen. Along with the quick auto-setup, the best projectors oblige with auto color-correction to account for the tint of the wall paint.

I'm not sure anyone knows yet exactly who's buying these premium lifestyle projectors or how large the market is. But at the very lowest end of the projector market where impulse pricing reigns supreme, I do know that there's a segment of today's mass market that is adopting projection in droves. The preponderance of garbage $100-and-under projectors on Amazon, which sell at the rate of more than 10,000 a month for the most popular models, tells you there's real demand today among the general public for that big, immersive image. It's allure—ultimately, the allure of projection—is irresistable. And logic would tell you that even if 100-inch panel TVs become a commodity at home, consumers may still want affordable, high performing projectors that allow them to enjoy that big image on a road trip or in the backyard.

Somewhere between the Amazon crap and a $1,600 to $2,000 high end, triple-laser box projector may lie the just-right combination of form factor, performance/brightness, ease-of-use, and price that could finally turn the projector from a geeky oddity into a common household appliance. The projector industry—including some of the best-known brands who appear to be lagging in this arena as new companies come into the space with innovative products—ought to be positioning itself to take advantage. Of course, any real formula for mass market success would also have to involve cleaning up the mess of indecipherable, conflicting, or outright false specifications for brightness and contrast that make it hard to accurately compare products or trust any manufacturer's claims...lest the industry kill the Golden Goose before it even flaps it wings. But that's another story we'll save for another day...

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